Forecasting the Future of Democracy, Conflict, and Displacement in Africa: An Analysis of 2023

On January 25th, The University of Edinburgh and the Royal African Society  hosted a panel discussion on the prospects and forecasts for Africa in 2023. The event looked into the #political, #economic, #climatic, and #cultural outlook for the continent. I participated in the discussion alongside  experts Dr Nicholas Wescott, Dr Dineo Skosana  (PhD, Political Science), Francisca Anita Adom-Opare, and Albert E. Sharra. It was an engaging and informative event.

I emphasised that the political landscape of Africa is constantly shifting and evolving, and the upcoming presidential elections in various countries may have far-reaching implications for the stability and security of the region. The continued armed conflicts and the threat of terrorism in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel raise serious concerns about the potential for further destabilisation and the exacerbation of humanitarian crises. The protracted displacement of refugees, combined with the Cessation Clause and ineffective durable solutions offered by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), poses a significant challenge for the region, leaving hundreds of thousands of former refugees without access to essential resources and support.

Furthermore, the potential for political leaders to subvert the democratic process and tighten their grip on power poses a significant threat to the advancement of democracy in Africa. The results of Presidential Elections in Nigeria, Gabon, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Somaliland, Sudan, and Zimbabwe, and the potential for new political forces to challenge established elites will have a profound impact on the future of the continent. The prospects for peace in the Sahel and Horn of Africa remain uncertain, and the possibility of significant changes or challenges cannot be dismissed. While worst-case scenarios may seem unlikely, it is important to remain vigilant and prepare for potential challenges.

My analysis focused on the potential outcomes of the 2023 elections and the prospects for peace in the Sahel and Horn of Africa. Additionally, I examined the post-refugee situations in Africa, with a particular focus on the challenges faced by former refugees and the efficacy of durable solutions offered by the UNHCR. It is imperative to consider these issues in order to create a stable and secure future for the people of Africa.

I encourage anyone with an interest in Africa's future to Click here to download the PDF version or watch my forecast and analysis of the Future of Democracy, Conflict and Displacement in Africa. Don't miss out on this lively discussion! 

Read More about the Event here: https://royalafricansociety.org/event/africa-2023-prospects-and-forecasts-edinburgh/

#africa #Africa2023